Energy forecasters see a worsening supply glut in 2020, putting OPEC+ in a bind. But beyond that, the bust could result in a boom as supply growth slows to a trickle.
“For three years, oversupply has deteriorated Energy equity sentiment,” Goldman Sachs wrote in a note on Monday. That presented an impossible choice for OPEC – cut output or let prices crash? The group chose to slash production in an effort to rescue prices, but in doing so, it arguably prolonged the adjustment by propping up unprofitable shale drillers.
OPEC faces the same choice as it approaches its December meeting, and the prospect of another year of oversupply looms.
However, U.S. shale is indeed slowing down. Theoretically, as shale drillers bite the dust in increasing numbers and rigs continue to get scrapped, the slowdown will help the market rebalance, which could lead to a more durable price rally.
“We believe this inflection may be around a year away,” Goldman Sachs wrote.
The investment bank says that slowing U.S. shale production growth combined with a shortage of investment in long-term projects will lead to a new boom.