Why Peak Oil Demand Doesn’t Matter

23. september 2018: Why Peak Oil Demand Doesn’t Matter

In the previous article, I discussed the natural gas projections from the recent report Rivalry: The IHS Markit View of the Energy Future (2018-50). IHS Markit is a provider of global market data for a number of sectors, including energy.

Although natural gas is projected to be the fastest-growing fossil fuel, the report also makes several important projections about the global oil market.

Notably, it expects global oil consumption to continue growing by an annual average of 1.1 million barrels per day (BPD) through 2030. However, natural gas is projected to grow at an even faster rate, so the report projects that oil’s global energy market share will decline from 32 percent in 2017 (#1 among all energy sources) to 26.6 percent in 2050. This would put it in second place in 2050, slightly behind natural gas with a 27.3 percent share.

In the 2030s, oil demand is finally forecast to begin slowing as a result of fuel economy gains and competition from electric vehicles. Oil demand is projected to peak in the early 2030s at about 113 million BPD, which is 15 million BPD higher than 2017 demand. The report then projects essentially constant oil demand to 2050.

About 70 percent of new global oil supplies over the next decade are projected to come from the U.S., Canada, and Brazil. These new supplies are projected to be profitable at below $100/barrel (2017 dollars), and this helps keep prices below that level until 2035.

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